Have you noticed the new look of beauty?

What we first called out two years ago as potential “change” on the way, has become a full-blown transformation. From products to brands to retailers to the consumer base driving trends, the look of beauty, particularly prestige beauty, has rarely been as altered as it is today.

The view ahead to 2016 comes from this altered state, through the lens of where we are and where we have been.

For years, skin care was the leader of growth. Serums, creams and every imaginable corrective agent from the kitchen to the laboratory was a virtual guarantee of success. The standout leaders in makeup growth were color products—first lipgloss, then nail color and, more recently, lipsticks and stains and unabashedly naked eye shadows. Fragrance has been the laggard category in the U.S., struggling along with lackluster or declining sales, propped up with gift sets and celebrity scents.

As we head into 2016, none of those legacy trends define beauty.

Makeup as Skin Care

The most noticeable transformation we expect to see continue into 2016 is the skin care-makeup dynamic. On our watch list last year, we said: “Expect this shift in focus (from corrective skin care to preventative skin care) to bring new blended product and benefit applications further to the fore in 2015. With this change, facial skin care, the leader of growth for several years, takes a back seat to makeup.”

In skin care, smaller and less traditional categories will continue to emerge. Heading into 2016, masks have been the leader of growth; watch new emergent product categories like facial supplements, as well as color correction products and face oils.

‘Immediacy’ is a Trend

Offsetting the shift in skin care, makeup products will continue to lead in addressing the benefits of immediacy—with the wave of a hand, appear more slender, lifted or radiant. For the first time in more than a decade, face products in makeup are the leader of makeup growth.

Expect products offering contouring, strobing/highlighting as well as eye definition and lip drama to continue to gain market share as a gateway for smaller brands as well as younger consumers.

Fragrance is Growing

For fragrance lovers, 2016 will be a year to smile. Outperforming skin care, for the first time in 2015, fragrance is poised to continue its ride. The momentum comes both from established scents and new launches, particularly European designer scents, as well as flanker spinoffs. From investment options in larger and even jumbo sizes, to portability and experimentation options in roller balls and travel sizes—both for women and men—options will continue to make fragrance a winning choice.

Prestige Beauty Will Remain Strong

All indications are that 2016 will be another strong year in Beauty, particularly prestige Beauty. The joy and dynamism of Beauty is that whether viewed from the consumer, the retailer or the brand perspective, it is an industry that is constantly adapting and evolving to meet the ever-changing needs of the consumer.

This skill has kept prestige Beauty at the forefront of top performing industries. Yes, disruption has led to change, which has become a full transformation in the new look of Beauty.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Karen Grant is vice president and global beauty industry expert for The NPD Group. In this role, she provides a comprehensive view of the market—coupling expertise of brand management in department stores with the strategic insight of market research. Karen’s concentration is in uncovering emerging market trends, brand vulnerabilities and opportunities. She also provides industry insights on key trends to associations such as HBA and to the media.

Grant is also a member of Beauty Packaging’s Board of Advisors.